Use of In Silico Methods for Regulatory Toxicological Assessment of Pharmaceutical Impurities.

The use of novel non-testing methodologies to support the toxicological assessment of drug impurities is having a growing impact in the regulatory framework for pharmaceutical development and marketed products. For DNA reactive (mutagenic) impurities specific recommendations for the use of in silico structure-based approaches (namely (Q)SAR methodologies) are provided in the ICH M7 guideline. In 2018 a draft reflection paper has been published by EMA addressing open issues in the qualification approach of non-genotoxic impurities (NGI) according to the ICH Q3A/Q3B guidelines, and proposing the use of alternative testing strategies, including TTC, (Q)SAR, read-across, and in vitro approaches, to gather impurity-specific safety information.In the present chapter we describe a workflow to perform the safety assessment of drug impurities based on non-testing in silico methodologies. The proposed approach consists of a stepwise decision scheme including three key phases: PHASE 1: assessment of bacterial mutagenicity and consequent classification of impurities according to ICH M7; PHASE 2: risk characterization of mutagenic impurities (Classes 1, 2 or 3); PHASE 3: qualification of non-mutagenic impurities (Classes 4 or 5). The proposed decision scheme offers the possibility to acquire impurity-specific data, also if testing is not feasible, and to decide on further in vitro testing, besides meeting 3R's principle.

Internationalization of read-across as a validated new approach method (NAM) for regulatory toxicology.

Read-across (RAx) translates available information from well-characterized chemicals to a substance for which there is a toxicological data gap. The OECD is working on case studies to probe general applicability of RAx, and several regulations (e.g., EU-REACH) already allow this procedure to be used to waive new in vivo tests. The decision to prepare a review on the state of the art of RAx as a tool for risk assessment for regulatory purposes was taken during a workshop with international experts in Ranco, Italy in July 2018. Three major issues were identified that need optimization to allow a higher regulatory acceptance rate of the RAx procedure: (i) the definition of similarity of source and target, (ii) the translation of biological/toxicological activity of source to target in the RAx procedure, and (iii) how to deal with issues of ADME that may differ between source and target. The use of new approach methodologies (NAM) was discussed as one of the most important innovations to improve the acceptability of RAx. At present, NAM data may be used to confirm chemical and toxicological similarity. In the future, the use of NAM may be broadened to fully characterize the hazard and toxicokinetic properties of RAx compounds. Concerning available guidance, documents on Good Read-Across Practice (GRAP) and on best practices to perform and evaluate the RAx process were identified. Here, in particular, the RAx guidance, being worked out by the European Commission's H2020 project EU-ToxRisk together with many external partners with regulatory experience, is given.

Filling Data Gaps by Read-across: A Mini Review on its Application, Developments and Challenges.

Read-across is a non-testing data gap filling technique which provides information for toxicological assessments by inferring from known toxicity data of compound(s) with a "similar" property or chemical profile. The increased usage of read-across was driven by monetary, timing and ethical costs associated with in vivo testing, as well as promoted by regulatory frameworks to minimize new animal testing (e. g., EU-REACH). Several guidance documents have been published by ECHA and OECD providing guidelines on how to perform, assess and document a read-across study. In parallel, much effort was invested by the scientific community to provide good read-across practices and structured frameworks to enhance validity of read-across justifications. Nevertheless, read-across is an evolving method with several open issues and opportunities. A brief review is here provided on key developments on the use of read-across, regulatory and scientific expectations, practical hurdles and open challenges.

High-Throughput Analysis of Ovarian Cycle Disruption by Mixtures of Aromatase Inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Combining computational toxicology with ExpoCast exposure estimates and ToxCast™ assay data gives us access to predictions of human health risks stemming from exposures to chemical mixtures. OBJECTIVES: We explored, through mathematical modeling and simulations, the size of potential effects of random mixtures of aromatase inhibitors on the dynamics of women's menstrual cycles. METHODS: We simulated random exposures to millions of potential mixtures of 86 aromatase inhibitors. A pharmacokinetic model of intake and disposition of the chemicals predicted their internal concentration as a function of time (up to 2 y). A ToxCast™ aromatase assay provided concentration-inhibition relationships for each chemical. The resulting total aromatase inhibition was input to a mathematical model of the hormonal hypothalamus-pituitary-ovarian control of ovulation in women. RESULTS: Above 10% inhibition of estradiol synthesis by aromatase inhibitors, noticeable (eventually reversible) effects on ovulation were predicted. Exposures to individual chemicals never led to such effects. In our best estimate, ∼10% of the combined exposures simulated had mild to catastrophic impacts on ovulation. A lower bound on that figure, obtained using an optimistic exposure scenario, was 0.3%. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate the possibility to predict large-scale mixture effects for endocrine disrupters with a predictive toxicology approach that is suitable for high-throughput ranking and risk assessment. The size of the effects predicted is consistent with an increased risk of infertility in women from everyday exposures to our chemical environment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP742.

Quantitative structure-skin permeability relationships.

This paper reviews in silico models currently available for the prediction of skin permeability. A comprehensive discussion on the developed methods is presented, focusing on quantitative structure-permeability relationships. In addition, the mechanistic models and comparative studies that analyse different models are discussed. Limitations and strengths of the different approaches are highlighted together with the emergent issues and perspectives.

The application of molecular modelling in the safety assessment of chemicals: A case study on ligand-dependent PPARγ dysregulation.

The aim of this paper was to provide a proof of concept demonstrating that molecular modelling methodologies can be employed as a part of an integrated strategy to support toxicity prediction consistent with the mode of action/adverse outcome pathway (MoA/AOP) framework. To illustrate the role of molecular modelling in predictive toxicology, a case study was undertaken in which molecular modelling methodologies were employed to predict the activation of the peroxisome proliferator-activated nuclear receptor γ (PPARγ) as a potential molecular initiating event (MIE) for liver steatosis. A stepwise procedure combining different in silico approaches (virtual screening based on docking and pharmacophore filtering, and molecular field analysis) was developed to screen for PPARγ full agonists and to predict their transactivation activity (EC50). The performance metrics of the classification model to predict PPARγ full agonists were balanced accuracy=81%, sensitivity=85% and specificity=76%. The 3D QSAR model developed to predict EC50 of PPARγ full agonists had the following statistical parameters: q2cv=0.610, Nopt=7, SEPcv=0.505, r2pr=0.552. To support the linkage of PPARγ agonism predictions to prosteatotic potential, molecular modelling was combined with independently performed mechanistic mining of available in vivo toxicity data followed by ToxPrint chemotypes analysis. The approaches investigated demonstrated a potential to predict the MIE, to facilitate the process of MoA/AOP elaboration, to increase the scientific confidence in AOP, and to become a basis for 3D chemotype development.

Multiscale modelling approaches for assessing cosmetic ingredients safety.

The European Union's ban on animal testing for cosmetic ingredients and products has generated a strong momentum for the development of in silico and in vitro alternative methods. One of the focus of the COSMOS project was ab initio prediction of kinetics and toxic effects through multiscale pharmacokinetic modeling and in vitro data integration. In our experience, mathematical or computer modeling and in vitro experiments are complementary. We present here a summary of the main models and results obtained within the framework of the project on these topics. A first section presents our work at the organelle and cellular level. We then go toward modeling cell levels effects (monitored continuously), multiscale physiologically based pharmacokinetic and effect models, and route to route extrapolation. We follow with a short presentation of the automated KNIME workflows developed for dissemination and easy use of the models. We end with a discussion of two challenges to the field: our limited ability to deal with massive data and complex computations.

The Consultancy Activity on In Silico Models for Genotoxic Prediction of Pharmaceutical Impurities.

The toxicological assessment of DNA-reactive/mutagenic or clastogenic impurities plays an important role in the regulatory process for pharmaceuticals; in this context, in silico structure-based approaches are applied as primary tools for the evaluation of the mutagenic potential of the drug impurities. The general recommendations regarding such use of in silico methods are provided in the recent ICH M7 guideline stating that computational (in silico) toxicology assessment should be performed using two (Q)SAR prediction methodologies complementing each other: a statistical-based method and an expert rule-based method.Based on our consultant experience, we describe here a framework for in silico assessment of mutagenic potential of drug impurities. Two main applications of in silico methods are presented: (1) support and optimization of drug synthesis processes by providing early indication of potential genotoxic impurities and (2) regulatory evaluation of genotoxic potential of impurities in compliance with the ICH M7 guideline. Some critical case studies are also discussed.

Modeling ready biodegradability of fragrance materials.

In the present study, quantitative structure activity relationships were developed for predicting ready biodegradability of approximately 200 heterogeneous fragrance materials. Two classification methods, classification and regression tree (CART) and k-nearest neighbors (kNN), were applied to perform the modeling. The models were validated with multiple external prediction sets, and the structural applicability domain was verified by the leverage approach. The best models had good sensitivity (internal ≥80%; external ≥68%), specificity (internal ≥80%; external 73%), and overall accuracy (≥75%). Results from the comparison with BIOWIN global models, based on group contribution method, show that specific models developed in the present study perform better in prediction than BIOWIN6, in particular for the correct classification of not readily biodegradable fragrance materials.

The QSPR-THESAURUS: the online platform of the CADASTER project.

The aim of the CADASTER project (CAse Studies on the Development and Application of in Silico Techniques for Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment) was to exemplify REACH-related hazard assessments for four classes of chemical compound, namely, polybrominated diphenylethers, per and polyfluorinated compounds, (benzo)triazoles, and musks and fragrances. The QSPR-THESAURUS website (http: / /qspr-thesaurus.eu) was established as the project's online platform to upload, store, apply, and also create, models within the project. We overview the main features of the website, such as model upload, experimental design and hazard assessment to support risk assessment, and integration with other web tools, all of which are essential parts of the QSPR-THESAURUS.

Assessing predictive uncertainty in comparative toxicity potentials of triazoles.

Comparative toxicity potentials (CTPs) quantify the potential ecotoxicological impacts of chemicals per unit of emission. They are the product of a substance's environmental fate, exposure, and hazardous concentration. When empirical data are lacking, substance properties can be predicted. The goal of the present study was to assess the influence of predictive uncertainty in substance property predictions on the CTPs of triazoles. Physicochemical and toxic properties were predicted with quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs), and uncertainty in the predictions was quantified with use of the data underlying the QSARs. Degradation half-lives were based on a probability distribution representing experimental half-lives of triazoles. Uncertainty related to the species' sample size that was present in the prediction of the hazardous aquatic concentration was also included. All parameter uncertainties were treated as probability distributions, and propagated by Monte Carlo simulations. The 90% confidence interval of the CTPs typically spanned nearly 4 orders of magnitude. The CTP uncertainty was mainly determined by uncertainty in soil sorption and soil degradation rates, together with the small number of species sampled. In contrast, uncertainty in species-specific toxicity predictions contributed relatively little. The findings imply that the reliability of CTP predictions for the chemicals studied can be improved particularly by including experimental data for soil sorption and soil degradation, and by developing toxicity QSARs for more species.

Reply to the comment of S. Rayne on "QSAR model reproducibility and applicability: A case study of rate constants of hydroxyl radical reaction models applied to polybrominated diphenyl ethers and (benzo-)triazoles".

We appreciate the interest of Dr. Rayne on our article and we completely agree that the dataset of (benzo-)triazoles, which were screened by the hydroxyl radical reaction quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model, was not only composed of benzo-triazoles but also included some simpler triazoles (without the condensed benzene ring), such as the chemicals listed by Dr. Rayne, as well as some related heterocycles (also few not aromatic). We want to clarify that in this article (as well as in other articles in which the same dataset was screened), for conciseness, the abbreviations (B)TAZs and BTAZs were used as general (and certainly too simplified) notations meaning an extended dataset of benzo-triazoles, triazoles, and related compounds.

Daphnia and fish toxicity of (benzo)triazoles: validated QSAR models, and interspecies quantitative activity-activity modelling.

Due to their chemical properties synthetic triazoles and benzo-triazoles ((B)TAZs) are mainly distributed to the water compartments in the environment, and because of their wide use the potential effects on aquatic organisms are cause of concern. Non testing approaches like those based on quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) are valuable tools to maximize the information contained in existing experimental data and predict missing information while minimizing animal testing. In the present study, externally validated QSAR models for the prediction of acute (B)TAZs toxicity in Daphnia magna and Oncorhynchus mykiss have been developed according to the principles for the validation of QSARs and their acceptability for regulatory purposes, proposed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). These models are based on theoretical molecular descriptors, and are statistically robust, externally predictive and characterized by a verifiable structural applicability domain. They have been applied to predict acute toxicity for over 300 (B)TAZs without experimental data, many of which are in the pre-registration list of the REACH regulation. Additionally, a model based on quantitative activity-activity relationships (QAAR) has been developed, which allows for interspecies extrapolation from daphnids to fish. The importance of QSAR/QAAR, especially when dealing with specific chemical classes like (B)TAZs, for screening and prioritization of pollutants under REACH, has been highlighted.

Evaluation of CADASTER QSAR models for the aquatic toxicity of (benzo)triazoles and prioritisation by consensus prediction.

QSAR regression models of the toxicity of triazoles and benzotriazoles ([B]TAZs) to an alga (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata), Daphnia magna and a fish (Onchorhynchus mykiss), were developed by five partners in the FP7-EU Project, CADASTER. The models were developed by different methods - Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Partial Least Squares (PLS), Bayesian regularised regression and Associative Neural Network (ASNN) - by using various molecular descriptors (DRAGON, PaDEL-Descriptor and QSPR-THESAURUS web). In addition, different procedures were used for variable selection, validation and applicability domain inspection. The predictions of the models developed, as well as those obtained in a consensus approach by averaging the data predicted from each model, were compared with the results of experimental tests that were performed by two CADASTER partners. The individual and consensus models were able to correctly predict the toxicity classes of the chemicals tested in the CADASTER project, confirming the utility of the QSAR approach. The models were also used for the prediction of aquatic toxicity of over 300 (B)TAZs, many of which are included in the REACH pre-registration list, and were without experimental data. This highlights the importance of QSAR models for the screening and prioritisation of untested chemicals, in order to reduce and focus experimental testing.

Experimental assessment of the environmental fate and effects of triazoles and benzotriazole.

The environmental fate and effects of triazoles and benzotriazoles are of concern within the context of chemical regulation. As part of an intelligent testing strategy, experimental tests were performed on endpoints that are relevant for risk assessment. The experimental tests included the assessment of ecotoxicity to an alga, a daphnid and zebrafish embryos, and the assessment of ready biodegradability. Triazole and benzotriazole compounds were selected for testing, based on existing toxicity data for vertebrate and invertebrate species, as well as on the principal component analysis of molecular descriptors aimed at selecting the minimum number of test compounds in order to maximise the chemical domain spanned for both compound classes. The experimental results show that variation in the toxicities of triazoles and benzotriazole across species was relatively minor; in general, the largest factor was approximately 20. The study conducted indicated that triazoles are not readily biodegradable.

Understanding quantitative structure-property relationships uncertainty in environmental fate modeling.

In cases in which experimental data on chemical-specific input parameters are lacking, chemical regulations allow the use of alternatives to testing, such as in silico predictions based on quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs). Such predictions are often given as point estimates; however, little is known about the extent to which uncertainties associated with QSPR predictions contribute to uncertainty in fate assessments. In the present study, QSPR-induced uncertainty in overall persistence (POV ) and long-range transport potential (LRTP) was studied by integrating QSPRs into probabilistic assessments of five polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), using the multimedia fate model Simplebox. The uncertainty analysis considered QSPR predictions of the fate input parameters' melting point, water solubility, vapor pressure, organic carbon-water partition coefficient, hydroxyl radical degradation, biodegradation, and photolytic degradation. Uncertainty in POV and LRTP was dominated by the uncertainty in direct photolysis and the biodegradation half-life in water. However, the QSPRs developed specifically for PBDEs had a relatively low contribution to uncertainty. These findings suggest that the reliability of the ranking of PBDEs on the basis of POV and LRTP can be substantially improved by developing better QSPRs to estimate degradation properties. The present study demonstrates the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in nontesting strategies and highlights the need for guidance when compounds fall outside the applicability domain of a QSPR.

QSAR Modeling is not "Push a Button and Find a Correlation": A Case Study of Toxicity of (Benzo-)triazoles on Algae.

A case study of toxicity of (benzo)triazoles ((B)TAZs) to the algae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata is used to discuss some problems and solutions in QSAR modeling, particularly in the environmental context. The relevance of data curation (not only of experimental data, but also of chemical structures and input formats for the calculation of molecular descriptors), the crucial points of QSAR model validation and the potential application for new chemicals (internal robustness, exclusion of chance correlation, external predictivity, applicability domain) are described, while developing MLR-OLS models based on molecular descriptors, calculated by various QSAR software tools (commercial DRAGON, free PaDEL-Descriptor and QSPR-THESAURUS). Additionally, the utility of consensus models is highlighted. This work summarizes a methodology for a rigorous statistical approach to obtain reliable QSAR predictions, also for a large number of (B)TAZs in the ECHA preregistration list of REACH (even if starting from limited experimental data availability), and has evidenced some ambiguities and discrepancies related to SMILES notations from different databases; furthermore it highlighted some general problems related to QSAR model generation and was useful in the implementation of the PaDEL-Descriptor software.

QSAR model reproducibility and applicability: a case study of rate constants of hydroxyl radical reaction models applied to polybrominated diphenyl ethers and (benzo-)triazoles.

The crucial importance of the three central OECD principles for quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model validation is highlighted in a case study of tropospheric degradation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by OH, applied to two CADASTER chemical classes (PBDEs and (benzo-)triazoles). The application of any QSAR model to chemicals without experimental data largely depends on model reproducibility by the user. The reproducibility of an unambiguous algorithm (OECD Principle 2) is guaranteed by redeveloping MLR models based on both updated version of DRAGON software for molecular descriptors calculation and some freely available online descriptors. The Genetic Algorithm has confirmed its ability to always select the most informative descriptors independently on the input pool of variables. The ability of the GA-selected descriptors to model chemicals not used in model development is verified by three different splittings (random by response, K-ANN and K-means clustering), thus ensuring the external predictivity of the new models, independently of the training/prediction set composition (OECD Principle 5). The relevance of checking the structural applicability domain becomes very evident on comparing the predictions for CADASTER chemicals, using the new models proposed herein, with those obtained by EPI Suite.

QSAR classification models for the prediction of endocrine disrupting activity of brominated flame retardants.

The identification of potential endocrine disrupting (ED) chemicals is an important task for the scientific community due to their diffusion in the environment; the production and use of such compounds will be strictly regulated through the authorization process of the REACH regulation. To overcome the problem of insufficient experimental data, the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approach is applied to predict the ED activity of new chemicals. In the present study QSAR classification models are developed, according to the OECD principles, to predict the ED potency for a class of emerging ubiquitary pollutants, viz. brominated flame retardants (BFRs). Different endpoints related to ED activity (i.e. aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonism and antagonism, estrogen receptor agonism and antagonism, androgen and progesterone receptor antagonism, T4-TTR competition, E2SULT inhibition) are modeled using the k-NN classification method. The best models are selected by maximizing the sensitivity and external predictive ability. We propose simple QSARs (based on few descriptors) characterized by internal stability, good predictive power and with a verified applicability domain. These models are simple tools that are applicable to screen BFRs in relation to their ED activity, and also to design safer alternatives, in agreement with the requirements of REACH regulation at the authorization step.

CADASTER QSPR Models for Predictions of Melting and Boiling Points of Perfluorinated Chemicals.

Quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) studies on per- and polyfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) on melting point (MP) and boiling point (BP) are presented. The training and prediction chemicals used for developing and validating the models were selected from Syracuse PhysProp database and literatures. The available experimental data sets were split in two different ways: a) random selection on response value, and b) structural similarity verified by self-organizing-map (SOM), in order to propose reliable predictive models, developed only on the training sets and externally verified on the prediction sets. Individual linear and non-linear approaches based models developed by different CADASTER partners on 0D-2D Dragon descriptors, E-state descriptors and fragment based descriptors as well as consensus model and their predictions are presented. In addition, the predictive performance of the developed models was verified on a blind external validation set (EV-set) prepared using PERFORCE database on 15 MP and 25 BP data respectively. This database contains only long chain perfluoro-alkylated chemicals, particularly monitored by regulatory agencies like US-EPA and EU-REACH. QSPR models with internal and external validation on two different external prediction/validation sets and study of applicability-domain highlighting the robustness and high accuracy of the models are discussed. Finally, MPs for additional 303 PFCs and BPs for 271 PFCs were predicted for which experimental measurements are unknown.